FIM District Jackson at Columbia Event presented by Consumers Energy Foundation

Qualification · Qualification 62

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

116.69 – 67.04

65%35%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

73 – 64

Prediction correct · off by 23.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 217.4 ±11.7

8300Titan Robotics

Season APEX 60.3Event APEX 45.96Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9183RoboComets

Season APEX 49.2Event APEX 13.51Rank 22Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

862Lightning Robotics

Season APEX 107.9Event APEX 57.22Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 152.2 ±13.9

9753Team Success

Season APEX 25.6Event APEX -4.38Rank 37Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11496Jurassic JayHawks

Season APEX 71.6Event APEX 26.37Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7225Mechatronic Mustangs

Season APEX 55Event APEX 45.05Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8300, 9183, 862

/ 100 compat

Projected

116.7 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 8300, 9183, 862

Auto

26.2 26%

Teleop

45.4 46%

Endgame

27.3 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9753, 11496, 7225

/ 100 compat

Projected

67 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 9753, 11496, 7225

Auto

12.1 16%

Teleop

48.6 65%

Endgame

13.6 18%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.81 · Blue 1.26

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score116.7pts

Blue projected score67pts

Red win probability65%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 47%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 49.6
Score range: 38–146
Upset likelihood: 35%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 137 vs event baseline 162.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

217.4Season APEX152.2

26.2Auto12.1

45.4Teleop48.6

27.3Endgame13.6

55Consistency35

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	11
teleop	44	32
endgame	12	21
foul	0	0
total	73	64

Result

Final score

73 – 64

Prediction correct · off by 23.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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