FIM District Jackson at Columbia Event presented by Consumers Energy Foundation

Qualification · Qualification 61

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

276.88 – 177.48

78%22%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

188 – 212

Prediction missed · off by 61.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 394.7 ±10.4

9210Fighting Falcons

Season APEX 143.8Event APEX 136.2Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1481The Riveters

Season APEX 150.4Event APEX 90.85Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4381Twisted Devils

Season APEX 100.5Event APEX 49.83Rank 15Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 291.7 ±12.2

5205FullMetal-Jackets

Season APEX 59.1Event APEX 32.99Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2611Jacktown Vectors

Season APEX 182.4Event APEX 140.27Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5530Greenhills Lawnmowers

Season APEX 50.2Event APEX 4.22Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9210, 1481, 4381

/ 100 compat

Projected

276.9 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 9210, 1481, 4381

Auto

36.8 13%

Teleop

165.9 60%

Endgame

73.9 27%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5205, 2611, 5530

/ 100 compat

Projected

177.5 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 5205, 2611, 5530

Auto

39.6 22%

Teleop

98.5 55%

Endgame

42.4 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.27 · Blue 1.06

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score276.9pts

Blue projected score177.5pts

Red win probability78%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 67%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 99.4
Score range: 148–306
Upset likelihood: 22%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 400 vs event baseline 161.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

394.7Season APEX291.7

36.8Auto39.6

165.9Teleop98.5

73.9Endgame42.4

61Consistency26

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	40	33
teleop	115	102
endgame	33	77
foul	0	0
total	188	212

Result

Final score

188 – 212

Prediction missed · off by 61.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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