FIM District Jackson at Columbia Event presented by Consumers Energy Foundation

Qualification · Qualification 6

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

209.74 – 104.22

79%21%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

89 – 80

Prediction correct · off by 72.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 432.5 ±10.7

862Lightning Robotics

Season APEX 107.9Event APEX 53.33Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3414Hackbots

Season APEX 266.4Event APEX 164.6Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9212Infinity

Season APEX 58.2Event APEX -8.19Rank 35Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 228.3 ±12.2

5530Greenhills Lawnmowers

Season APEX 50.2Event APEX 8.58Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7221Viking Robotics

Season APEX 58.4Event APEX 22.03Rank 33Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5676The H.E.R.O.E.S

Season APEX 119.7Event APEX 73.61Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 862, 3414, 9212

/ 100 compat

Projected

209.7 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 862, 3414, 9212

Auto

54.8 26%

Teleop

107.2 52%

Endgame

45.0 22%

Strengths

· 3414 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5530, 7221, 5676

/ 100 compat

Projected

104.2 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 5530, 7221, 5676

Auto

27.3 27%

Teleop

49.4 50%

Endgame

23.0 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.13 · Blue 0.99

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score209.7pts

Blue projected score104.2pts

Red win probability79%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 105.5
Score range: 73–241
Upset likelihood: 21%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 169 vs event baseline 170.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

432.5Season APEX228.3

54.8Auto27.3

107.2Teleop49.4

45Endgame23

53Consistency74

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	55	17
teleop	19	44
endgame	15	19
foul	0	0
total	89	80

Result

Final score

89 – 80

Prediction correct · off by 72.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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