FIM District Jackson at Columbia Event presented by Consumers Energy Foundation

Qualification · Qualification 59

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

185.79 – 61.56

82%18%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

174 – 43

Prediction correct · off by 15.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 284.6 ±12.2

5676The H.E.R.O.E.S

Season APEX 119.7Event APEX 69.31Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5641Byron Robotics

Season APEX 62.7Event APEX 27Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4003TriSonics

Season APEX 102.2Event APEX 89.48Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 179.8 ±13.3

3773Arrowhead Robotics

Season APEX 55.5Event APEX 3.97Rank 36Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11460Olivet Eaglebots

Season APEX 62.9Event APEX 26.46Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5239The Royal Stags

Season APEX 61.4Event APEX 31.13Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5676, 5641, 4003

/ 100 compat

Projected

185.8 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 5676, 5641, 4003

Auto

29.7 17%

Teleop

98.5 56%

Endgame

47.4 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3773, 11460, 5239

/ 100 compat

Projected

61.6 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 3773, 11460, 5239

Auto

15.5 27%

Teleop

25.0 44%

Endgame

16.7 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.25 · Blue 0.86

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score185.8pts

Blue projected score61.6pts

Red win probability82%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 47%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 124.2
Score range: 33–215
Upset likelihood: 18%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 217 vs event baseline 161.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

284.6Season APEX179.8

29.7Auto15.5

98.5Teleop25

47.4Endgame16.7

63Consistency74

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	30	13
teleop	119	17
endgame	25	13
foul	0	0
total	174	43

Result

Final score

174 – 43

Prediction correct · off by 15.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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