FIM District Jackson at Columbia Event presented by Consumers Energy Foundation

Qualification · Qualification 58

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

186.91 – 67.72

82%18%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

201 – 127

Prediction correct · off by 36.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 272.8 ±12.2

7197Mountie Megabots

Season APEX 137.4Event APEX 71.28Rank 5Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6556Spartan Robotics 6556

Season APEX 35Event APEX 29.92Rank 30Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7656MC Hammers

Season APEX 100.4Event APEX 85.71Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 266 ±11.2

4568Robot Commander

Season APEX 56.8Event APEX -10.49Rank 34Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

862Lightning Robotics

Season APEX 107.9Event APEX 49.41Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9312NERD Spark

Season APEX 101.3Event APEX 28.8Rank 18Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7197, 6556, 7656

/ 100 compat

Projected

186.9 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 7197, 6556, 7656

Auto

25.7 13%

Teleop

116.3 60%

Endgame

50.7 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4568, 862, 9312

/ 100 compat

Projected

67.7 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 4568, 862, 9312

Auto

30.4 47%

Teleop

19.0 29%

Endgame

15.7 24%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.27 · Blue 0.89

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score186.9pts

Blue projected score67.7pts

Red win probability82%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 60%, blue 47%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 119.2
Score range: 39–216
Upset likelihood: 18%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 328 vs event baseline 161.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

272.8Season APEX266

25.7Auto30.4

116.3Teleop19

50.7Endgame15.7

41Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	34	18
teleop	125	75
endgame	42	34
foul	0	0
total	201	127

Result

Final score

201 – 127

Prediction correct · off by 36.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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