FIM District Jackson at Columbia Event presented by Consumers Energy Foundation

Qualification · Qualification 56

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

120.03 – 175.8

33%67%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

228 – 220

Prediction missed · off by 76.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 270.1 ±12.2

8300Titan Robotics

Season APEX 60.3Event APEX 34.31Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1481The Riveters

Season APEX 150.4Event APEX 81.61Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11462Morenci Miswired

Season APEX 59.4Event APEX 4.11Rank 11Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 377.5 ±12.2

9594Ashley Bears

Season APEX 66.1Event APEX 36.66Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3668TroBots

Season APEX 144.5Event APEX 125.77Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11387G.L.E.A.M. - Grass Lake Engineering and Mechanics

Season APEX 166.9Event APEX 13.37Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8300, 1481, 11462

/ 100 compat

Projected

120 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 8300, 1481, 11462

Auto

30.3 25%

Teleop

70.0 58%

Endgame

20.8 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9594, 3668, 11387

/ 100 compat

Projected

175.8 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 9594, 3668, 11387

Auto

34.9 22%

Teleop

92.5 59%

Endgame

30.4 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.21 · Blue 2.03

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score120pts

Blue projected score175.8pts

Red win probability33%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 66%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -55.8
Score range: 91–205
Upset likelihood: 33%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

High scoring

Combined score 448 vs event baseline 159.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

270.1Season APEX377.5

30.3Auto34.9

70Teleop92.5

20.8Endgame30.4

59Consistency73

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	22	30
teleop	116	118
endgame	90	72
foul	0	0
total	228	220

Result

Final score

228 – 220

Prediction missed · off by 76.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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