FIM District Jackson at Columbia Event presented by Consumers Energy Foundation

Qualification · Qualification 54

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

140.46 – 288.47

14%86%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

117 – 224

Prediction correct · off by 44 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 280 ±11.2

4381Twisted Devils

Season APEX 100.5Event APEX 55.08Rank 15Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

862Lightning Robotics

Season APEX 107.9Event APEX 54.96Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11496Jurassic JayHawks

Season APEX 71.6Event APEX 30.42Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 363 ±11.7

11460Olivet Eaglebots

Season APEX 62.9Event APEX 31.02Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5144LISD TECHnicians

Season APEX 156.3Event APEX 114.83Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9210Fighting Falcons

Season APEX 143.8Event APEX 142.62Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4381, 862, 11496

/ 100 compat

Projected

140.5 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 4381, 862, 11496

Auto

30.3 21%

Teleop

68.5 48%

Endgame

44.1 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11460, 5144, 9210

/ 100 compat

Projected

288.5 pts

~2.4 RP (district)

Teams: 11460, 5144, 9210

Auto

42.4 16%

Teleop

156.1 58%

Endgame

68.8 26%

Strengths

· 9210 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.95 · Blue 2.39

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score140.5pts

Blue projected score288.5pts

Red win probability14%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 64%, blue 62%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -148
Score range: 112–316
Upset likelihood: 14%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 341 vs event baseline 157.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

280Season APEX363

30.3Auto42.4

68.5Teleop156.1

44.1Endgame68.8

18Consistency131

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	31	39
teleop	65	103
endgame	21	82
foul	0	0
total	117	224

Result

Final score

117 – 224

Prediction correct · off by 44 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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