Qualification · Qualification 53
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Blue alliance
Predicted score
122.48 – 210.49
25%75%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
171 – 145
Prediction missed · off by 57 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 252.4 ±11.7
Season APEX 101.3Event APEX 30.95Rank 18Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 59.1Event APEX 27.46Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 92Event APEX 64.07Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 343.9 ±11
Season APEX 161.7Event APEX 106.55Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 126.7Event APEX 90.51Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 55.5Event APEX 13.43Rank 36Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 9312, 5205, 11386
53
/ 100 compatProjected
122.5 pts
~1.1 RP (district)
Teams: 9312, 5205, 11386
Auto
34.9 27%
Teleop
57.8 44%
Endgame
38.1 29%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 53%
Supercharged: 3%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 1025, 4422, 3773
80
/ 100 compatProjected
210.5 pts
~2.1 RP (district)
Teams: 1025, 4422, 3773
Auto
41.8 20%
Teleop
113.3 55%
Endgame
52.3 25%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 53%
Supercharged: 3%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.08 · Blue 2.12
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score122.5pts
Blue projected score210.5pts
Red win probability25%
Event bonus sample178alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 53%, blue 58%
Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- -88
- Score range
- 94–238
- Upset likelihood
- 25%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-17
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
252.4Season APEX343.9
34.9Auto41.8
57.8Teleop113.3
38.1Endgame52.3
12Consistency74
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 40 | 8 |
| teleop | 98 | 71 |
| endgame | 33 | 66 |
| foul | 0 | 0 |
| total | 171 | 145 |
Result
Final score
171 – 145
Prediction missed · off by 57 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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