FIM District Jackson at Columbia Event presented by Consumers Energy Foundation

Qualification · Qualification 51

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

114.96 – 250.97

16%84%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

55 – 245

Prediction correct · off by 33 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 193.4 ±13.3

4568Robot Commander

Season APEX 56.8Event APEX -2.84Rank 34Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5239The Royal Stags

Season APEX 61.4Event APEX 39.67Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7501Golden Gears

Season APEX 75.2Event APEX 78.13Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 336.9 ±11.7

7225Mechatronic Mustangs

Season APEX 55Event APEX 47.8Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7197Mountie Megabots

Season APEX 137.4Event APEX 74.6Rank 5Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3668TroBots

Season APEX 144.5Event APEX 128.57Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4568, 5239, 7501

/ 100 compat

Projected

115 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 4568, 5239, 7501

Auto

18.8 17%

Teleop

63.3 57%

Endgame

28.1 25%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7225, 7197, 3668

/ 100 compat

Projected

251 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 7225, 7197, 3668

Auto

39.0 16%

Teleop

144.0 59%

Endgame

61.0 25%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.85 · Blue 2.34

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score115pts

Blue projected score251pts

Red win probability16%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 61%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -136
Score range: 87–279
Upset likelihood: 16%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-17
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 300 vs event baseline 157.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

193.4Season APEX336.9

18.8Auto39

63.3Teleop144

28.1Endgame61

13Consistency64

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	22	27
teleop	11	155
endgame	22	63
foul	0	0
total	55	245

Result

Final score

55 – 245

Prediction correct · off by 33 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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