FIM District Jackson at Columbia Event presented by Consumers Energy Foundation

Qualification · Qualification 50

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

131.53 – 32.28

77%23%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

208 – 50

Prediction correct · off by 47.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 253.4 ±12.2

5530Greenhills Lawnmowers

Season APEX 50.2Event APEX 0.77Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9210Fighting Falcons

Season APEX 143.8Event APEX 131.58Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11462Morenci Miswired

Season APEX 59.4Event APEX -0.82Rank 11Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 178.2 ±13.9

11444Cougar Claw Robotics

Season APEX 48.4Event APEX 20.29Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9212Infinity

Season APEX 58.2Event APEX -12.3Rank 35Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11496Jurassic JayHawks

Season APEX 71.6Event APEX 24.29Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5530, 9210, 11462

/ 100 compat

Projected

131.5 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 5530, 9210, 11462

Auto

24.9 19%

Teleop

93.1 70%

Endgame

15.9 12%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11444, 9212, 11496

/ 100 compat

Projected

32.3 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 11444, 9212, 11496

Auto

7.5 20%

Teleop

23.1 60%

Endgame

7.6 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.14 · Blue 0.98

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score131.5pts

Blue projected score32.3pts

Red win probability77%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 99.3
Score range: 3–161
Upset likelihood: 23%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 258 vs event baseline 158.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

253.4Season APEX178.2

24.9Auto7.5

93.1Teleop23.1

15.9Endgame7.6

56Consistency33

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	39	19
teleop	107	5
endgame	47	26
foul	15	0
total	208	50

Result

Final score

208 – 50

Prediction correct · off by 47.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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