FIM District Jackson at Columbia Event presented by Consumers Energy Foundation

Qualification · Qualification 49

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

124.22 – 194.59

29%71%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

104 – 194

Prediction correct · off by 10.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 213.6 ±12.2

3773Arrowhead Robotics

Season APEX 55.5Event APEX 15.6Rank 36Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11386Climax-Scotts PantherBots

Season APEX 92Event APEX 67.32Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9594Ashley Bears

Season APEX 66.1Event APEX 41.3Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 304.8 ±11.2

4422Twisted Angels

Season APEX 126.7Event APEX 93.62Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4216Blue Ops Robotics

Season APEX 70.2Event APEX 44.81Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

862Lightning Robotics

Season APEX 107.9Event APEX 56.16Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3773, 11386, 9594

/ 100 compat

Projected

124.2 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 3773, 11386, 9594

Auto

29.6 25%

Teleop

59.2 51%

Endgame

27.8 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4422, 4216, 862

/ 100 compat

Projected

194.6 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 4422, 4216, 862

Auto

46.2 27%

Teleop

81.1 47%

Endgame

45.9 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.15 · Blue 2.07

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score124.2pts

Blue projected score194.6pts

Red win probability29%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 61%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -70.4
Score range: 95–224
Upset likelihood: 29%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 298 vs event baseline 158.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

213.6Season APEX304.8

29.6Auto46.2

59.2Teleop81.1

27.8Endgame45.9

46Consistency48

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	30	37
teleop	50	95
endgame	24	57
foul	0	5
total	104	194

Result

Final score

104 – 194

Prediction correct · off by 10.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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