FIM District Jackson at Columbia Event presented by Consumers Energy Foundation

Qualification · Qualification 48

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

127.02 – 196.44

30%70%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

160 – 393

Prediction correct · off by 114.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 214.3 ±13.3

4003TriSonics

Season APEX 102.2Event APEX 87.88Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9183RoboComets

Season APEX 49.2Event APEX 9.56Rank 22Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11460Olivet Eaglebots

Season APEX 62.9Event APEX 29.58Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 518.1 ±9.8

1481The Riveters

Season APEX 150.4Event APEX 60.44Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3414Hackbots

Season APEX 266.4Event APEX 127.9Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9312NERD Spark

Season APEX 101.3Event APEX 8.1Rank 18Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4003, 9183, 11460

/ 100 compat

Projected

127 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 4003, 9183, 11460

Auto

23.7 19%

Teleop

81.5 64%

Endgame

22.0 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1481, 3414, 9312

/ 100 compat

Projected

196.4 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 1481, 3414, 9312

Auto

35.7 18%

Teleop

117.9 58%

Endgame

48.0 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.19 · Blue 2.05

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score127pts

Blue projected score196.4pts

Red win probability30%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -69.4
Score range: 99–224
Upset likelihood: 30%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 553 vs event baseline 156.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

214.3Season APEX518.1

23.7Auto35.7

81.5Teleop117.9

22Endgame48

94Consistency49

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	26	100
teleop	39	214
endgame	20	79
foul	75	0
total	160	393

Result

Final score

160 – 393

Prediction correct · off by 114.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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