FIM District Jackson at Columbia Event presented by Consumers Energy Foundation

Qualification · Qualification 47

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

166.65 – 240.96

28%72%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

221 – 214

Prediction missed · off by 40.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 332.8 ±11.7

5144LISD TECHnicians

Season APEX 156.3Event APEX 117.16Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5676The H.E.R.O.E.S

Season APEX 119.7Event APEX 54.89Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4568Robot Commander

Season APEX 56.8Event APEX -5.4Rank 34Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 369.7 ±11.7

9753Team Success

Season APEX 25.6Event APEX -1.1Rank 37Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1025Impi Warriors

Season APEX 161.7Event APEX 110.88Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2611Jacktown Vectors

Season APEX 182.4Event APEX 131.18Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5144, 5676, 4568

/ 100 compat

Projected

166.7 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 5144, 5676, 4568

Auto

27.2 17%

Teleop

89.8 56%

Endgame

42.9 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9753, 1025, 2611

/ 100 compat

Projected

241 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 9753, 1025, 2611

Auto

43.5 18%

Teleop

130.7 54%

Endgame

68.8 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.14 · Blue 2.11

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score166.7pts

Blue projected score241pts

Red win probability28%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 63%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -74.3
Score range: 139–269
Upset likelihood: 28%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

High scoring

Combined score 435 vs event baseline 154.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

332.8Season APEX369.7

27.2Auto43.5

89.8Teleop130.7

42.9Endgame68.8

77Consistency95

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	55	70
teleop	81	97
endgame	85	42
foul	0	5
total	221	214

Result

Final score

221 – 214

Prediction missed · off by 40.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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