FIM District Jackson at Columbia Event presented by Consumers Energy Foundation

Qualification · Qualification 44

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

19.98 – 52.35

40%60%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

31 – 40

Prediction correct · off by 11.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 172.1 ±13.3

3773Arrowhead Robotics

Season APEX 55.5Event APEX 14.52Rank 36Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7221Viking Robotics

Season APEX 58.4Event APEX 15.03Rank 33Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9212Infinity

Season APEX 58.2Event APEX -9.57Rank 35Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 170.5 ±13.9

5641Byron Robotics

Season APEX 62.7Event APEX 18.94Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11462Morenci Miswired

Season APEX 59.4Event APEX 6.26Rank 11Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11444Cougar Claw Robotics

Season APEX 48.4Event APEX 27.15Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3773, 7221, 9212

/ 100 compat

Projected

20 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 3773, 7221, 9212

Auto

6.0 35%

Teleop

-3.3 0%

Endgame

14.3 84%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5641, 11462, 11444

/ 100 compat

Projected

52.4 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 5641, 11462, 11444

Auto

14.1 27%

Teleop

16.9 33%

Endgame

20.3 40%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.29 · Blue 1.74

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score20pts

Blue projected score52.4pts

Red win probability40%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -32.4
Score range: -8–80
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 71 vs event baseline 156.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

172.1Season APEX170.5

6Auto14.1

-3.3Teleop16.9

14.3Endgame20.3

89Consistency25

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	19	13
teleop	5	15
endgame	7	12
foul	0	0
total	31	40

Result

Final score

31 – 40

Prediction correct · off by 11.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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