FIM District Jackson at Columbia Event presented by Consumers Energy Foundation

Qualification · Qualification 43

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

177.92 – 275.23

23%77%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

168 – 302

Prediction correct · off by 18.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 310.5 ±11.7

11386Climax-Scotts PantherBots

Season APEX 92Event APEX 69.62Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4568Robot Commander

Season APEX 56.8Event APEX -6.65Rank 34Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1025Impi Warriors

Season APEX 161.7Event APEX 114.95Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 353.9 ±10.5

862Lightning Robotics

Season APEX 107.9Event APEX 57.47Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4003TriSonics

Season APEX 102.2Event APEX 85.31Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9210Fighting Falcons

Season APEX 143.8Event APEX 132.45Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11386, 4568, 1025

/ 100 compat

Projected

177.9 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 11386, 4568, 1025

Auto

38.3 22%

Teleop

99.0 57%

Endgame

37.9 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 862, 4003, 9210

/ 100 compat

Projected

275.2 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 862, 4003, 9210

Auto

49.7 19%

Teleop

151.3 57%

Endgame

65.1 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.04 · Blue 2.19

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score177.9pts

Blue projected score275.2pts

Red win probability23%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 61%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -97.3
Score range: 150–303
Upset likelihood: 23%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 470 vs event baseline 154.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

310.5Season APEX353.9

38.3Auto49.7

99Teleop151.3

37.9Endgame65.1

11Consistency78

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	38	38
teleop	60	171
endgame	70	63
foul	0	30
total	168	302

Result

Final score

168 – 302

Prediction correct · off by 18.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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