FIM District Jackson at Columbia Event presented by Consumers Energy Foundation

Qualification · Qualification 40

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

166.81 – 142.01

58%42%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

103 – 84

Prediction correct · off by 60.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 266.2 ±12.8

5641Byron Robotics

Season APEX 62.7Event APEX 30.18Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7197Mountie Megabots

Season APEX 137.4Event APEX 78.44Rank 5Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9594Ashley Bears

Season APEX 66.1Event APEX 58.19Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 221.2 ±13.3

11496Jurassic JayHawks

Season APEX 71.6Event APEX 41.13Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7656MC Hammers

Season APEX 100.4Event APEX 79.42Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9183RoboComets

Season APEX 49.2Event APEX 21.46Rank 22Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5641, 7197, 9594

/ 100 compat

Projected

166.8 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 5641, 7197, 9594

Auto

23.7 15%

Teleop

100.4 62%

Endgame

39.1 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11496, 7656, 9183

/ 100 compat

Projected

142 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 11496, 7656, 9183

Auto

9.4 6%

Teleop

94.8 61%

Endgame

50.9 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.79 · Blue 1.5

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score166.8pts

Blue projected score142pts

Red win probability58%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 62%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 24.8
Score range: 114–195
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 187 vs event baseline 155.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

266.2Season APEX221.2

23.7Auto9.4

100.4Teleop94.8

39.1Endgame50.9

18Consistency47

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	15	16
teleop	46	45
endgame	37	23
foul	5	0
total	103	84

Result

Final score

103 – 84

Prediction correct · off by 60.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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