FIM District Jackson at Columbia Event presented by Consumers Energy Foundation

Qualification · Qualification 39

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

213.6 – 156.12

67%33%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

180 – 215

Prediction missed · off by 46.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 341.3 ±11.7

7221Viking Robotics

Season APEX 58.4Event APEX 20.44Rank 33Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4381Twisted Devils

Season APEX 100.5Event APEX 52.3Rank 15Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2611Jacktown Vectors

Season APEX 182.4Event APEX 140.86Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 387.2 ±12.4

11462Morenci Miswired

Season APEX 59.4Event APEX 1.84Rank 11Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5239The Royal Stags

Season APEX 61.4Event APEX 29.49Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3414Hackbots

Season APEX 266.4Event APEX 124.79Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7221, 4381, 2611

/ 100 compat

Projected

213.6 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 7221, 4381, 2611

Auto

34.9 16%

Teleop

104.3 49%

Endgame

74.5 35%

Strengths

· 2611 anchors offense
· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 72%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11462, 5239, 3414

/ 100 compat

Projected

156.1 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 11462, 5239, 3414

Auto

41.9 26%

Teleop

95.7 59%

Endgame

25.8 16%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 72%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.11 · Blue 1.28

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score213.6pts

Blue projected score156.1pts

Red win probability67%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 72%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 57.5
Score range: 128–242
Upset likelihood: 33%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 395 vs event baseline 154.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

341.3Season APEX387.2

34.9Auto41.9

104.3Teleop95.7

74.5Endgame25.8

88Consistency24

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	29	45
teleop	89	114
endgame	57	56
foul	5	0
total	180	215

Result

Final score

180 – 215

Prediction missed · off by 46.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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