FIM District Jackson at Columbia Event presented by Consumers Energy Foundation

Qualification · Qualification 32

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

44.63 – 217.56

10%90%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

21 – 113

Prediction correct · off by 64.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 199.9 ±12.2

11444Cougar Claw Robotics

Season APEX 48.4Event APEX 19.44Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5530Greenhills Lawnmowers

Season APEX 50.2Event APEX 18.39Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9312NERD Spark

Season APEX 101.3Event APEX 6.8Rank 18Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 323.6 ±11.7

3668TroBots

Season APEX 144.5Event APEX 125.88Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5676The H.E.R.O.E.S

Season APEX 119.7Event APEX 65.11Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11462Morenci Miswired

Season APEX 59.4Event APEX 26.57Rank 11Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11444, 5530, 9312

/ 100 compat

Projected

44.6 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 11444, 5530, 9312

Auto

24.1 50%

Teleop

9.3 19%

Endgame

15.2 31%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3668, 5676, 11462

/ 100 compat

Projected

217.6 pts

~2.4 RP (district)

Teams: 3668, 5676, 11462

Auto

36.4 17%

Teleop

115.7 55%

Endgame

56.6 27%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.72 · Blue 2.43

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score44.6pts

Blue projected score217.6pts

Red win probability10%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 47%, blue 60%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -172.9
Score range: 18–245
Upset likelihood: 10%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 134 vs event baseline 152.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

199.9Season APEX323.6

24.1Auto36.4

9.3Teleop115.7

15.2Endgame56.6

79Consistency93

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	5	48
teleop	16	53
endgame	0	12
foul	0	0
total	21	113

Result

Final score

21 – 113

Prediction correct · off by 64.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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