FIM District Jackson at Columbia Event presented by Consumers Energy Foundation

Qualification · Qualification 31

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

115.8 – 268.05

13%87%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

169 – 303

Prediction correct · off by 44.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 192.1 ±13.3

7656MC Hammers

Season APEX 100.4Event APEX 83.75Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9594Ashley Bears

Season APEX 66.1Event APEX 43.22Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9753Team Success

Season APEX 25.6Event APEX -11.17Rank 37Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 366.9 ±11.7

9210Fighting Falcons

Season APEX 143.8Event APEX 131.93Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1025Impi Warriors

Season APEX 161.7Event APEX 103.43Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5239The Royal Stags

Season APEX 61.4Event APEX 32.69Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7656, 9594, 9753

/ 100 compat

Projected

115.8 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 7656, 9594, 9753

Auto

12.0 10%

Teleop

61.3 52%

Endgame

44.5 38%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9210, 1025, 5239

/ 100 compat

Projected

268.1 pts

~2.4 RP (district)

Teams: 9210, 1025, 5239

Auto

38.2 15%

Teleop

159.4 61%

Endgame

62.4 24%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.89 · Blue 2.41

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score115.8pts

Blue projected score268.1pts

Red win probability13%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 63%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -152.2
Score range: 89–295
Upset likelihood: 13%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 472 vs event baseline 149.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

192.1Season APEX366.9

12Auto38.2

61.3Teleop159.4

44.5Endgame62.4

76Consistency23

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	19	54
teleop	103	185
endgame	42	64
foul	5	0
total	169	303

Result

Final score

169 – 303

Prediction correct · off by 44.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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