FIM District Jackson at Columbia Event presented by Consumers Energy Foundation

Qualification · Qualification 30

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

201.76 – 154.9

64%36%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

273 – 100

Prediction correct · off by 63.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 462.9 ±11.2

5205FullMetal-Jackets

Season APEX 59.1Event APEX 23.46Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3414Hackbots

Season APEX 266.4Event APEX 109.06Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7197Mountie Megabots

Season APEX 137.4Event APEX 69.24Rank 5Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 329.1 ±12.2

11386Climax-Scotts PantherBots

Season APEX 92Event APEX 98.51Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4216Blue Ops Robotics

Season APEX 70.2Event APEX 30.85Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11387G.L.E.A.M. - Grass Lake Engineering and Mechanics

Season APEX 166.9Event APEX 25.54Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5205, 3414, 7197

/ 100 compat

Projected

201.8 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 5205, 3414, 7197

Auto

33.4 16%

Teleop

122.2 58%

Endgame

54.3 26%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11386, 4216, 11387

/ 100 compat

Projected

154.9 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 11386, 4216, 11387

Auto

37.9 27%

Teleop

61.6 43%

Endgame

43.0 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.94 · Blue 1.37

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score201.8pts

Blue projected score154.9pts

Red win probability64%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 61%, blue 62%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 46.9
Score range: 128–229
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 373 vs event baseline 148.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

462.9Season APEX329.1

33.4Auto37.9

122.2Teleop61.6

54.3Endgame43

17Consistency31

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	56	37
teleop	164	44
endgame	53	19
foul	0	0
total	273	100

Result

Final score

273 – 100

Prediction correct · off by 63.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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