FIM District Jackson at Columbia Event presented by Consumers Energy Foundation

Qualification · Qualification 3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

91.52 – 110.91

44%56%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

51 – 80

Prediction correct · off by 35.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 283.3 ±13.3

5239The Royal Stags

Season APEX 61.4Event APEX 33.3Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11387G.L.E.A.M. - Grass Lake Engineering and Mechanics

Season APEX 166.9Event APEX 21.71Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7225Mechatronic Mustangs

Season APEX 55Event APEX 36.51Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 177.9 ±12.2

11386Climax-Scotts PantherBots

Season APEX 92Event APEX 73.96Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8300Titan Robotics

Season APEX 60.3Event APEX 33.27Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9753Team Success

Season APEX 25.6Event APEX 3.68Rank 37Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5239, 11387, 7225

/ 100 compat

Projected

91.5 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 5239, 11387, 7225

Auto

22.1 24%

Teleop

46.5 50%

Endgame

24.8 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11386, 8300, 9753

/ 100 compat

Projected

110.9 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 11386, 8300, 9753

Auto

28.4 26%

Teleop

59.0 53%

Endgame

23.7 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.47 · Blue 1.63

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score91.5pts

Blue projected score110.9pts

Red win probability44%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 47%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -19.4
Score range: 61–142
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 131 vs event baseline 170.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

283.3Season APEX177.9

22.1Auto28.4

46.5Teleop59

24.8Endgame23.7

53Consistency62

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	7	24
teleop	30	36
endgame	14	20
foul	0	0
total	51	80

Result

Final score

51 – 80

Prediction correct · off by 35.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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