FIM District Jackson at Columbia Event presented by Consumers Energy Foundation

Qualification · Qualification 29

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

122.84 – 117.38

52%48%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

161 – 187

Prediction missed · off by 53.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 303.5 ±12.8

11460Olivet Eaglebots

Season APEX 62.9Event APEX 27.02Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9212Infinity

Season APEX 58.2Event APEX -22.48Rank 35Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2611Jacktown Vectors

Season APEX 182.4Event APEX 118.3Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 286.3 ±12.8

11496Jurassic JayHawks

Season APEX 71.6Event APEX 37.98Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5144LISD TECHnicians

Season APEX 156.3Event APEX 77.7Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7221Viking Robotics

Season APEX 58.4Event APEX 1.7Rank 33Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11460, 9212, 2611

/ 100 compat

Projected

122.8 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 11460, 9212, 2611

Auto

45.7 36%

Teleop

60.3 48%

Endgame

20.1 16%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11496, 5144, 7221

/ 100 compat

Projected

117.4 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 11496, 5144, 7221

Auto

17.2 17%

Teleop

56.8 57%

Endgame

26.5 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.63 · Blue 1.64

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score122.8pts

Blue projected score117.4pts

Red win probability52%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 63%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 5.5
Score range: 90–150
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 348 vs event baseline 147.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

303.5Season APEX286.3

45.7Auto17.2

60.3Teleop56.8

20.1Endgame26.5

174Consistency56

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	25	21
teleop	106	102
endgame	30	64
foul	0	0
total	161	187

Result

Final score

161 – 187

Prediction missed · off by 53.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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