FIM District Jackson at Columbia Event presented by Consumers Energy Foundation

Qualification · Qualification 28

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

64.88 – 148.17

26%74%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

33 – 159

Prediction correct · off by 21.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 172.6 ±12.7

8300Titan Robotics

Season APEX 60.3Event APEX 29.87Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3773Arrowhead Robotics

Season APEX 55.5Event APEX 21.08Rank 36Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4568Robot Commander

Season APEX 56.8Event APEX 13.93Rank 34Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 295.6 ±11.7

4422Twisted Angels

Season APEX 126.7Event APEX 69.91Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5676The H.E.R.O.E.S

Season APEX 119.7Event APEX 66.94Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9183RoboComets

Season APEX 49.2Event APEX 11.32Rank 22Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8300, 3773, 4568

/ 100 compat

Projected

64.9 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 8300, 3773, 4568

Auto

20.2 29%

Teleop

42.7 61%

Endgame

7.5 11%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4422, 5676, 9183

/ 100 compat

Projected

148.2 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 4422, 5676, 9183

Auto

29.5 21%

Teleop

98.5 69%

Endgame

15.0 10%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.96 · Blue 2.1

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score64.9pts

Blue projected score148.2pts

Red win probability26%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 39%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -83.3
Score range: 38–175
Upset likelihood: 26%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 192 vs event baseline 149.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

172.6Season APEX295.6

20.2Auto29.5

42.7Teleop98.5

7.5Endgame15

85Consistency79

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	10	20
teleop	16	93
endgame	7	41
foul	0	5
total	33	159

Result

Final score

33 – 159

Prediction correct · off by 21.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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