FIM District Jackson at Columbia Event presented by Consumers Energy Foundation

Qualification · Qualification 26

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

45.66 – 73.96

41%59%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

130 – 136

Prediction correct · off by 73.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 255.6 ±12.2

1481The Riveters

Season APEX 150.4Event APEX 24.22Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7225Mechatronic Mustangs

Season APEX 55Event APEX 11.1Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5530Greenhills Lawnmowers

Season APEX 50.2Event APEX 10.34Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 235.9 ±12.2

9312NERD Spark

Season APEX 101.3Event APEX 5.27Rank 18Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11462Morenci Miswired

Season APEX 59.4Event APEX 15.56Rank 11Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7501Golden Gears

Season APEX 75.2Event APEX 53.13Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1481, 7225, 5530

/ 100 compat

Projected

45.7 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 1481, 7225, 5530

Auto

24.5 49%

Teleop

17.8 36%

Endgame

7.3 15%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9312, 11462, 7501

/ 100 compat

Projected

74 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 9312, 11462, 7501

Auto

35.4 46%

Teleop

13.2 17%

Endgame

28.9 37%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.36 · Blue 1.79

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score45.7pts

Blue projected score74pts

Red win probability41%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -28.3
Score range: 19–101
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 266 vs event baseline 147.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

255.6Season APEX235.9

24.5Auto35.4

17.8Teleop13.2

7.3Endgame28.9

165Consistency29

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	19	15
teleop	95	89
endgame	16	32
foul	0	0
total	130	136

Result

Final score

130 – 136

Prediction correct · off by 73.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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