FIM District Jackson at Columbia Event presented by Consumers Energy Foundation

Qualification · Qualification 24

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

110.66 – 122.44

46%54%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

110 – 161

Prediction correct · off by 19.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 256.1 ±12.2

7197Mountie Megabots

Season APEX 137.4Event APEX 81.18Rank 5Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7221Viking Robotics

Season APEX 58.4Event APEX 13.29Rank 33Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8300Titan Robotics

Season APEX 60.3Event APEX 16.19Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 224.9 ±12.2

9210Fighting Falcons

Season APEX 143.8Event APEX 124.99Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9753Team Success

Season APEX 25.6Event APEX -11.6Rank 37Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3773Arrowhead Robotics

Season APEX 55.5Event APEX 9.05Rank 36Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7197, 7221, 8300

/ 100 compat

Projected

110.7 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 7197, 7221, 8300

Auto

25.3 24%

Teleop

51.7 49%

Endgame

27.9 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9210, 9753, 3773

/ 100 compat

Projected

122.4 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 9210, 9753, 3773

Auto

9.0 8%

Teleop

82.6 74%

Endgame

20.7 18%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.51 · Blue 1.61

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score110.7pts

Blue projected score122.4pts

Red win probability46%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -11.8
Score range: 84–149
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 271 vs event baseline 148.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

256.1Season APEX224.9

25.3Auto9

51.7Teleop82.6

27.9Endgame20.7

60Consistency143

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	22	26
teleop	55	100
endgame	33	35
foul	0	0
total	110	161

Result

Final score

110 – 161

Prediction correct · off by 19.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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