FIM District Jackson at Columbia Event presented by Consumers Energy Foundation

Qualification · Qualification 21

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

53.97 – 145.87

24%76%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

78 – 149

Prediction correct · off by 13.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 193.1 ±11.7

5530Greenhills Lawnmowers

Season APEX 50.2Event APEX 1.03Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6556Spartan Robotics 6556

Season APEX 35Event APEX 29.98Rank 30Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

862Lightning Robotics

Season APEX 107.9Event APEX 22.96Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 320.3 ±11.7

9312NERD Spark

Season APEX 101.3Event APEX 26.84Rank 18Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5144LISD TECHnicians

Season APEX 156.3Event APEX 99.15Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5641Byron Robotics

Season APEX 62.7Event APEX 19.88Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5530, 6556, 862

/ 100 compat

Projected

54 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 5530, 6556, 862

Auto

30.8 68%

Teleop

1.0 2%

Endgame

13.4 30%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9312, 5144, 5641

/ 100 compat

Projected

145.9 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 9312, 5144, 5641

Auto

33.8 23%

Teleop

65.5 44%

Endgame

49.0 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.99 · Blue 2.12

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score54pts

Blue projected score145.9pts

Red win probability24%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 47%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -91.9
Score range: 29–171
Upset likelihood: 24%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 227 vs event baseline 139.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

193.1Season APEX320.3

30.8Auto33.8

1Teleop65.5

13.4Endgame49

11Consistency148

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	55	20
teleop	12	79
endgame	6	50
foul	5	0
total	78	149

Result

Final score

78 – 149

Prediction correct · off by 13.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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