FIM District Jackson at Columbia Event presented by Consumers Energy Foundation

Qualification · Qualification 20

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

91.11 – 47.17

63%37%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

148 – 64

Prediction correct · off by 36.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 240.2 ±12.8

5239The Royal Stags

Season APEX 61.4Event APEX -7.33Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5205FullMetal-Jackets

Season APEX 59.1Event APEX 29.76Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5676The H.E.R.O.E.S

Season APEX 119.7Event APEX 68.68Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 160.2 ±13.9

11444Cougar Claw Robotics

Season APEX 48.4Event APEX 2.8Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4568Robot Commander

Season APEX 56.8Event APEX 21.55Rank 34Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7225Mechatronic Mustangs

Season APEX 55Event APEX 22.82Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5239, 5205, 5676

/ 100 compat

Projected

91.1 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 5239, 5205, 5676

Auto

7.4 8%

Teleop

52.2 55%

Endgame

35.1 37%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11444, 4568, 7225

/ 100 compat

Projected

47.2 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 11444, 4568, 7225

Auto

13.4 26%

Teleop

20.8 40%

Endgame

17.5 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.84 · Blue 1.22

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score91.1pts

Blue projected score47.2pts

Red win probability63%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 44%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 43.9
Score range: 22–116
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-17
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 212 vs event baseline 141.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

240.2Season APEX160.2

7.4Auto13.4

52.2Teleop20.8

35.1Endgame17.5

63Consistency63

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	34	10
teleop	92	32
endgame	22	22
foul	0	0
total	148	64

Result

Final score

148 – 64

Prediction correct · off by 36.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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