Qualification · Qualification 18
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
141.05 – 19.64
82%18%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
149 – 86
Prediction correct · off by 37.2 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 324.2 ±12.2
Season APEX 102.2Event APEX 84.06Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 150.4Event APEX 19.67Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 71.6Event APEX 37.32Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 159.2 ±13.3
Season APEX 75.2Event APEX 44.45Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 25.6Event APEX -25.67Rank 37Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 58.4Event APEX 0.86Rank 33Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 4003, 1481, 11496
65
/ 100 compatProjected
141.1 pts
~2.3 RP (district)
Teams: 4003, 1481, 11496
Auto
20.8 15%
Teleop
89.0 65%
Endgame
26.8 20%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
–
RP bonus probability
Energized: 61%
Supercharged: 3%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 7501, 9753, 7221
13
/ 100 compatProjected
19.6 pts
~0.9 RP (district)
Teams: 7501, 9753, 7221
Auto
15.2 76%
Teleop
-15.9 0%
Endgame
20.6 100%
Strengths
- · Strong autonomous coverage
- · Reliable endgame stack
Weaknesses
- · Below-average combined firepower
RP bonus probability
Energized: 61%
Supercharged: 3%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.3 · Blue 0.95
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score141.1pts
Blue projected score19.6pts
Red win probability82%
Event bonus sample178alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 61%, blue 55%
Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 121.4
- Score range
- -5–166
- Upset likelihood
- 18%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
324.2Season APEX159.2
20.8Auto15.2
89Teleop-15.9
26.8Endgame20.6
0Consistency0
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 12 | 15 |
| teleop | 109 | 37 |
| endgame | 28 | 19 |
| foul | 0 | 15 |
| total | 149 | 86 |
Result
Final score
149 – 86
Prediction correct · off by 37.2 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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