FIM District Jackson at Columbia Event presented by Consumers Energy Foundation

Qualification · Qualification 16

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

43.8 – 153

20%80%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

80 – 323

Prediction correct · off by 103.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 173.2 ±13.3

7225Mechatronic Mustangs

Season APEX 55Event APEX 20.16Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3773Arrowhead Robotics

Season APEX 55.5Event APEX 6.24Rank 36Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5641Byron Robotics

Season APEX 62.7Event APEX 17.4Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 467 ±11.2

3414Hackbots

Season APEX 266.4Event APEX 42.29Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4568Robot Commander

Season APEX 56.8Event APEX 0.82Rank 34Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9210Fighting Falcons

Season APEX 143.8Event APEX 109.89Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7225, 3773, 5641

/ 100 compat

Projected

43.8 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 7225, 3773, 5641

Auto

11.5 26%

Teleop

15.4 35%

Endgame

17.5 39%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3414, 4568, 9210

/ 100 compat

Projected

153 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 3414, 4568, 9210

Auto

47.9 34%

Teleop

58.5 41%

Endgame

35.4 25%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.9 · Blue 2.2

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score43.8pts

Blue projected score153pts

Red win probability20%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -109.2
Score range: 19–178
Upset likelihood: 20%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 403 vs event baseline 136.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

173.2Season APEX467

11.5Auto47.9

15.4Teleop58.5

17.5Endgame35.4

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	12	27
teleop	42	243
endgame	26	53
foul	0	0
total	80	323

Result

Final score

80 – 323

Prediction correct · off by 103.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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