Qualification · Qualification 15
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
207.56 – 155.23
66%34%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
235 – 63
Prediction correct · off by 59.8 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 428.2 ±10.4
Season APEX 182.4Event APEX 96.86Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 101.3Event APEX 20.95Rank 18Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 144.5Event APEX 89.75Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 226.4 ±12.4
Season APEX 59.1Event APEX 46.52Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 59.4Event APEX 38.04Rank 11Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 107.9Event APEX 70.67Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 2611, 9312, 3668
89
/ 100 compatProjected
207.6 pts
~2.0 RP (district)
Teams: 2611, 9312, 3668
Auto
36.9 19%
Teleop
104.5 53%
Endgame
57.2 29%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
–
RP bonus probability
Energized: 65%
Supercharged: 4%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 5205, 11462, 862
76
/ 100 compatProjected
155.2 pts
~1.3 RP (district)
Teams: 5205, 11462, 862
Auto
45.0 30%
Teleop
69.7 46%
Endgame
36.7 24%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
–
RP bonus probability
Energized: 65%
Supercharged: 4%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.02 · Blue 1.26
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score207.6pts
Blue projected score155.2pts
Red win probability66%
Event bonus sample178alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 65%, blue 53%
Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 52.3
- Score range
- 131–232
- Upset likelihood
- 34%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
428.2Season APEX226.4
36.9Auto45
104.5Teleop69.7
57.2Endgame36.7
0Consistency0
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 66 | 34 |
| teleop | 113 | 5 |
| endgame | 56 | 19 |
| foul | 0 | 5 |
| total | 235 | 63 |
Result
Final score
235 – 63
Prediction correct · off by 59.8 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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