FIM District Jackson at Columbia Event presented by Consumers Energy Foundation

Qualification · Qualification 12

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

55.93 – 86.97

40%60%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

197 – 96

Prediction missed · off by 75.1 points

Limited current-season data (11 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 472.9 ±10.5

3414Hackbots

Season APEX 266.4Event APEX 4.04Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5530Greenhills Lawnmowers

Season APEX 50.2Event APEX -9.42Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5144LISD TECHnicians

Season APEX 156.3Event APEX 61.31Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 344.6 ±11.7

4568Robot Commander

Season APEX 56.8Event APEX -7.51Rank 34Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7197Mountie Megabots

Season APEX 137.4Event APEX 62.78Rank 5Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1481The Riveters

Season APEX 150.4Event APEX 31.7Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3414, 5530, 5144

/ 100 compat

Projected

55.9 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 3414, 5530, 5144

Auto

19.8 27%

Teleop

29.8 40%

Endgame

24.4 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4568, 7197, 1481

/ 100 compat

Projected

87 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 4568, 7197, 1481

Auto

18.6 20%

Teleop

41.7 45%

Endgame

32.7 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.44 · Blue 1.77

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score55.9pts

Blue projected score87pts

Red win probability40%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -31
Score range: 31–112
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 293 vs event baseline 140.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

472.9Season APEX344.6

19.8Auto18.6

29.8Teleop41.7

24.4Endgame32.7

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	49	21
teleop	101	54
endgame	47	21
foul	0	0
total	197	96

Result

Final score

197 – 96

Prediction missed · off by 75.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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