FIM District Jackson at Columbia Event presented by Consumers Energy Foundation

Qualification · Qualification 1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

95.83 – 142.23

36%64%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

76 – 119

Prediction correct · off by 21.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 242.9 ±12.8

11462Morenci Miswired

Season APEX 59.4Event APEX 24.91Rank 11Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4568Robot Commander

Season APEX 56.8Event APEX -4.26Rank 34Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4422Twisted Angels

Season APEX 126.7Event APEX 75.18Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 224.9 ±12.2

9183RoboComets

Season APEX 49.2Event APEX 18.47Rank 22Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4381Twisted Devils

Season APEX 100.5Event APEX 53.62Rank 15Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7501Golden Gears

Season APEX 75.2Event APEX 70.14Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11462, 4568, 4422

/ 100 compat

Projected

95.8 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 11462, 4568, 4422

Auto

18.1 19%

Teleop

52.6 57%

Endgame

22.3 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9183, 4381, 7501

/ 100 compat

Projected

142.2 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 9183, 4381, 7501

Auto

22.8 17%

Teleop

74.3 55%

Endgame

36.8 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.3 · Blue 1.95

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score95.8pts

Blue projected score142.2pts

Red win probability36%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 63%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -46.4
Score range: 65–173
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 195 vs event baseline 170.5.

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

242.9Season APEX224.9

18.1Auto22.8

52.6Teleop74.3

22.3Endgame36.8

64Consistency75

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	34	28
teleop	28	55
endgame	14	36
foul	0	0
total	76	119

Result

Final score

76 – 119

Prediction correct · off by 21.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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