FIM District Jackson at Columbia Event presented by Consumers Energy Foundation

Final · Finals 2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

310.76 – 218.12

76%24%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

299 – 133

Prediction correct · off by 48.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 465.7 ±10.5

3773Arrowhead Robotics

Season APEX 55.5Event APEX 16.29Rank 36Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9210Fighting Falcons

Season APEX 143.8Event APEX 129.56Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3414Hackbots

Season APEX 266.4Event APEX 164.91Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 371.4 ±10.4

9312NERD Spark

Season APEX 101.3Event APEX 48.28Rank 18Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1481The Riveters

Season APEX 150.4Event APEX 93.28Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5676The H.E.R.O.E.S

Season APEX 119.7Event APEX 76.56Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3773, 9210, 3414

/ 100 compat

Projected

310.8 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 3773, 9210, 3414

Auto

57.4 19%

Teleop

168.9 56%

Endgame

77.7 26%

Strengths

· 3414 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9312, 1481, 5676

/ 100 compat

Projected

218.1 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 9312, 1481, 5676

Auto

55.2 25%

Teleop

126.6 58%

Endgame

36.1 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.13 · Blue 1.08

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score310.8pts

Blue projected score218.1pts

Red win probability76%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 92.6
Score range: 187–342
Upset likelihood: 24%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 432 vs event baseline 170.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

465.7Season APEX371.4

57.4Auto55.2

168.9Teleop126.6

77.7Endgame36.1

34Consistency35

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	73	64
teleop	145	62
endgame	76	7
foul	5	0
total	299	133

Result

Final score

299 – 133

Prediction correct · off by 48.4 pts

Match videos

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