FIM District Ferris State Event presented by Ferris State University

Playoff · Playoff Match 9 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

166.59 – 187

44%56%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

248 – 103

Prediction missed · off by 82.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 354.3 ±11.1

3603Cyber Coyotes

Season APEX 181.2Event APEX 58.59Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10421Coded Dragons

Season APEX 71.2Event APEX 30.42Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6077Wiking Kujon

Season APEX 101.9Event APEX 77.58Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 285.6 ±11.7

7109Clare Chaos Theory

Season APEX 58.8Event APEX 28.85Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5982Merrill's Circuits of Destruction

Season APEX 95.9Event APEX 66.52Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5535Bionic Bison

Season APEX 130.9Event APEX 91.63Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3603, 10421, 6077

/ 100 compat

Projected

166.6 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 3603, 10421, 6077

Auto

38.8 23%

Teleop

89.6 53%

Endgame

39.8 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7109, 5982, 5535

/ 100 compat

Projected

187 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 7109, 5982, 5535

Auto

32.5 18%

Teleop

104.2 59%

Endgame

41.2 23%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.34 · Blue 1.71

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score166.6pts

Blue projected score187pts

Red win probability44%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 41%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -20.4
Score range: 145–209
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 351 vs event baseline 124.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

354.3Season APEX285.6

38.8Auto32.5

89.6Teleop104.2

39.8Endgame41.2

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	43	34
teleop	170	32
endgame	35	37
foul	0	0
total	248	103

Result

Final score

248 – 103

Prediction missed · off by 82.7 pts

Match videos

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