FIM District Ferris State Event presented by Ferris State University

Playoff · Playoff Match 8 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

181.83 – 124.22

67%33%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

100 – 143

Prediction missed · off by 50.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 287.1 ±11

6642Stingers of Steel

Season APEX 45Event APEX 21.21Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

288The RoboDawgs

Season APEX 127.3Event APEX 91.59Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1718The Fighting Pi

Season APEX 114.8Event APEX 69.03Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 223.7 ±11.1

244RoboDawgs 3D

Season APEX 108.2Event APEX 72.74Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6100MS Mobots

Season APEX 68.9Event APEX 41.85Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8286E.A.G.L.E.S. Robotics

Season APEX 46.6Event APEX 9.63Rank 40Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6642, 288, 1718

/ 100 compat

Projected

181.8 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 6642, 288, 1718

Auto

30.0 16%

Teleop

103.2 56%

Endgame

50.3 27%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 244, 6100, 8286

/ 100 compat

Projected

124.2 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 244, 6100, 8286

Auto

22.3 17%

Teleop

71.8 55%

Endgame

35.3 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.89 · Blue 0.99

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score181.8pts

Blue projected score124.2pts

Red win probability67%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 29%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 57.6
Score range: 102–204
Upset likelihood: 33%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Playoff

Combined score 243 vs event baseline 124.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

287.1Season APEX223.7

30Auto22.3

103.2Teleop71.8

50.3Endgame35.3

23Consistency32

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	20	26
teleop	55	103
endgame	25	14
foul	0	0
total	100	143

Result

Final score

100 – 143

Prediction missed · off by 50.3 pts

Match videos

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