FIM District Ferris State Event presented by Ferris State University

Playoff · Playoff Match 7 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

373.46 – 159.65

93%7%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

206 – 190

Prediction correct · off by 98.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 528.5 ±10.5

7160Ludington O-Bots

Season APEX 247.2Event APEX 107.75Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5213St. Ignace SHIELD

Season APEX 34.8Event APEX 6.61Rank 37Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1918Newaygo County GEARS

Season APEX 246.5Event APEX 259.1Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 354.3 ±11.1

3603Cyber Coyotes

Season APEX 181.2Event APEX 55.62Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10421Coded Dragons

Season APEX 71.2Event APEX 28.17Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6077Wiking Kujon

Season APEX 101.9Event APEX 75.86Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7160, 5213, 1918

/ 100 compat

Projected

373.5 pts

~2.4 RP (district)

Teams: 7160, 5213, 1918

Auto

79.9 21%

Teleop

226.1 61%

Endgame

66.6 18%

Strengths

· 1918 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3603, 10421, 6077

/ 100 compat

Projected

159.6 pts

~0.6 RP (district)

Teams: 3603, 10421, 6077

Auto

37.5 23%

Teleop

84.6 52%

Endgame

39.5 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.39 · Blue 0.6

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score373.5pts

Blue projected score159.6pts

Red win probability93%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 41%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 213.8
Score range: 138–395
Upset likelihood: 7%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 396 vs event baseline 123.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

528.5Season APEX354.3

79.9Auto37.5

226.1Teleop84.6

66.6Endgame39.5

28Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	21	42
teleop	105	108
endgame	80	40
foul	0	0
total	206	190

Result

Final score

206 – 190

Prediction correct · off by 98.9 pts

Match videos

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