FIM District Ferris State Event presented by Ferris State University

Playoff · Playoff Match 5 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

98.9 – 166.55

30%70%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

108 – 180

Prediction correct · off by 11.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 196.6 ±12.7

6963Blood Sweat and Gears

Season APEX 55.4Event APEX 21.96Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6005Cardinaltronics

Season APEX 69Event APEX 30.24Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9673Volt Vespids

Season APEX 72.2Event APEX 46.7Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 240.7 ±12.2

4004M.A.R.S. Rovers

Season APEX 97.6Event APEX 81.39Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9176Greenspire Steel Sturgeons

Season APEX 50.5Event APEX 32.3Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3618Petoskey Paladins

Season APEX 92.6Event APEX 52.86Rank 6Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6963, 6005, 9673

/ 100 compat

Projected

98.9 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 6963, 6005, 9673

Auto

23.2 24%

Teleop

50.4 51%

Endgame

24.9 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4004, 9176, 3618

/ 100 compat

Projected

166.6 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 4004, 9176, 3618

Auto

23.7 16%

Teleop

84.2 57%

Endgame

38.8 26%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.07 · Blue 1.87

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score98.9pts

Blue projected score166.6pts

Red win probability30%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 42%, blue 43%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -67.6
Score range: 77–189
Upset likelihood: 30%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 288 vs event baseline 122.5.

← Previous Next →

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

196.6Season APEX240.7

23.2Auto23.7

50.4Teleop84.2

24.9Endgame38.8

2Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	22	27
teleop	45	112
endgame	41	41
foul	0	0
total	108	180

Result

Final score

108 – 180

Prediction correct · off by 11.3 pts

Match videos

Watch right here, no need to leave the page.