FIM District Ferris State Event presented by Ferris State University

Playoff · Playoff Match 4 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

201.39 – 110.93

76%24%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

130 – 170

Prediction missed · off by 65.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 285.6 ±11.7

7109Clare Chaos Theory

Season APEX 58.8Event APEX 33.13Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5982Merrill's Circuits of Destruction

Season APEX 95.9Event APEX 70.75Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5535Bionic Bison

Season APEX 130.9Event APEX 97.51Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 223.7 ±11.1

244RoboDawgs 3D

Season APEX 108.2Event APEX 68.05Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6100MS Mobots

Season APEX 68.9Event APEX 35.9Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8286E.A.G.L.E.S. Robotics

Season APEX 46.6Event APEX 6.98Rank 40Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7109, 5982, 5535

/ 100 compat

Projected

201.4 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 7109, 5982, 5535

Auto

30.7 16%

Teleop

113.2 60%

Endgame

44.3 24%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 244, 6100, 8286

/ 100 compat

Projected

110.9 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 244, 6100, 8286

Auto

21.3 18%

Teleop

62.2 53%

Endgame

34.2 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.09 · Blue 0.82

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score201.4pts

Blue projected score110.9pts

Red win probability76%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 29%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 90.5
Score range: 89–223
Upset likelihood: 24%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 300 vs event baseline 122.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

285.6Season APEX223.7

30.7Auto21.3

113.2Teleop62.2

44.3Endgame34.2

0Consistency45

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	29	25
teleop	78	104
endgame	23	41
foul	0	0
total	130	170

Result

Final score

130 – 170

Prediction missed · off by 65.2 pts

Match videos

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