FIM District Ferris State Event presented by Ferris State University

Playoff · Playoff Match 3 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

182.42 – 118.74

69%31%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

182 – 167

Prediction correct · off by 24.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 287.1 ±11

1718The Fighting Pi

Season APEX 114.8Event APEX 69.08Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6642Stingers of Steel

Season APEX 45Event APEX 20.77Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

288The RoboDawgs

Season APEX 127.3Event APEX 92.57Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 273.1 ±11.7

9771FPRO

Season APEX 146.8Event APEX 54.7Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8611Cyber Patriots

Season APEX 65.3Event APEX 43.74Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6122Potential Energy

Season APEX 61Event APEX 20.3Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1718, 6642, 288

/ 100 compat

Projected

182.4 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 1718, 6642, 288

Auto

30.4 16%

Teleop

110.2 60%

Endgame

44.2 24%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9771, 8611, 6122

/ 100 compat

Projected

118.7 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 9771, 8611, 6122

Auto

24.9 21%

Teleop

72.1 60%

Endgame

23.9 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.92 · Blue 1.13

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score182.4pts

Blue projected score118.7pts

Red win probability69%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 63.7
Score range: 97–204
Upset likelihood: 31%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 349 vs event baseline 121.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

287.1Season APEX273.1

30.4Auto24.9

110.2Teleop72.1

44.2Endgame23.9

29Consistency31

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	28	33
teleop	74	107
endgame	80	27
foul	0	0
total	182	167

Result

Final score

182 – 167

Prediction correct · off by 24.3 pts

Match videos

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