FIM District Ferris State Event presented by Ferris State University

Playoff · Playoff Match 2 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

170.61 – 158.68

54%46%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

149 – 169

Prediction missed · off by 16 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 240.7 ±12.2

4004M.A.R.S. Rovers

Season APEX 97.6Event APEX 82.47Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9176Greenspire Steel Sturgeons

Season APEX 50.5Event APEX 33.62Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3618Petoskey Paladins

Season APEX 92.6Event APEX 54.52Rank 6Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 354.3 ±11.1

3603Cyber Coyotes

Season APEX 181.2Event APEX 54.49Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10421Coded Dragons

Season APEX 71.2Event APEX 28.26Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6077Wiking Kujon

Season APEX 101.9Event APEX 75.93Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4004, 9176, 3618

/ 100 compat

Projected

170.6 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 4004, 9176, 3618

Auto

22.4 15%

Teleop

88.0 59%

Endgame

39.0 26%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3603, 10421, 6077

/ 100 compat

Projected

158.7 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 3603, 10421, 6077

Auto

38.5 24%

Teleop

81.1 50%

Endgame

41.7 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.54 · Blue 1.39

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score170.6pts

Blue projected score158.7pts

Red win probability54%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 43%, blue 41%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 11.9
Score range: 137–193
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 318 vs event baseline 121.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

240.7Season APEX354.3

22.4Auto38.5

88Teleop81.1

39Endgame41.7

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	28	35
teleop	67	99
endgame	39	35
foul	15	0
total	149	169

Result

Final score

149 – 169

Prediction missed · off by 16 pts

Match videos

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