FIM District Ferris State Event presented by Ferris State University

Playoff · Playoff Match 1 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

390.26 – 102.39

97%3%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

319 – 80

Prediction correct · off by 46.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 528.5 ±10.5

7160Ludington O-Bots

Season APEX 247.2Event APEX 113.63Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5213St. Ignace SHIELD

Season APEX 34.8Event APEX 13.12Rank 37Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1918Newaygo County GEARS

Season APEX 246.5Event APEX 263.51Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 196.6 ±12.7

6963Blood Sweat and Gears

Season APEX 55.4Event APEX 23.24Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6005Cardinaltronics

Season APEX 69Event APEX 30.98Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9673Volt Vespids

Season APEX 72.2Event APEX 48.17Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7160, 5213, 1918

/ 100 compat

Projected

390.3 pts

~2.5 RP (district)

Teams: 7160, 5213, 1918

Auto

92.3 24%

Teleop

227.9 58%

Endgame

69.4 18%

Strengths

· 1918 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6963, 6005, 9673

/ 100 compat

Projected

102.4 pts

~0.5 RP (district)

Teams: 6963, 6005, 9673

Auto

21.9 21%

Teleop

54.8 54%

Endgame

25.3 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.46 · Blue 0.52

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score390.3pts

Blue projected score102.4pts

Red win probability97%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 42%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 287.9
Score range: 80–412
Upset likelihood: 3%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 399 vs event baseline 120.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

528.5Season APEX196.6

92.3Auto21.9

227.9Teleop54.8

69.4Endgame25.3

99Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	39	25
teleop	219	31
endgame	61	24
foul	0	0
total	319	80

Result

Final score

319 – 80

Prediction correct · off by 46.8 pts

Match videos

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