FIM District Ferris State Event presented by Ferris State University

Playoff · Playoff Match 13 R5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

135.89 – 164.55

41%59%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

88 – 83

Prediction missed · off by 64.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 223.7 ±11.1

244RoboDawgs 3D

Season APEX 108.2Event APEX 76.63Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6100MS Mobots

Season APEX 68.9Event APEX 46.04Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8286E.A.G.L.E.S. Robotics

Season APEX 46.6Event APEX 13.22Rank 40Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 287.1 ±11

6642Stingers of Steel

Season APEX 45Event APEX 15.32Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

288The RoboDawgs

Season APEX 127.3Event APEX 85.94Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1718The Fighting Pi

Season APEX 114.8Event APEX 63.29Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 244, 6100, 8286

/ 100 compat

Projected

135.9 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 244, 6100, 8286

Auto

21.5 15%

Teleop

82.0 59%

Endgame

36.1 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 29%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6642, 288, 1718

/ 100 compat

Projected

164.5 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 6642, 288, 1718

Auto

29.0 17%

Teleop

92.5 56%

Endgame

44.3 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 29%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.15 · Blue 1.72

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score135.9pts

Blue projected score164.5pts

Red win probability41%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 29%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -28.7
Score range: 113–188
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Playoff

Combined score 171 vs event baseline 126.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

223.7Season APEX287.1

21.5Auto29

82Teleop92.5

36.1Endgame44.3

28Consistency27

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	26	32
teleop	29	36
endgame	33	15
foul	0	0
total	88	83

Result

Final score

88 – 83

Prediction missed · off by 64.7 pts

Match videos

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