FIM District Ferris State Event presented by Ferris State University

Playoff · Playoff Match 12 R4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

165.69 – 179.12

46%54%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

154 – 102

Prediction missed · off by 44.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 287.1 ±11

6642Stingers of Steel

Season APEX 45Event APEX 15.57Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

288The RoboDawgs

Season APEX 127.3Event APEX 86.59Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1718The Fighting Pi

Season APEX 114.8Event APEX 63.53Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 354.3 ±11.1

3603Cyber Coyotes

Season APEX 181.2Event APEX 63.06Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10421Coded Dragons

Season APEX 71.2Event APEX 34.85Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6077Wiking Kujon

Season APEX 101.9Event APEX 81.21Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6642, 288, 1718

/ 100 compat

Projected

165.7 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 6642, 288, 1718

Auto

29.6 18%

Teleop

94.8 57%

Endgame

42.7 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3603, 10421, 6077

/ 100 compat

Projected

179.1 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 3603, 10421, 6077

Auto

39.5 22%

Teleop

102.2 57%

Endgame

39.0 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.46 · Blue 1.55

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score165.7pts

Blue projected score179.1pts

Red win probability46%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 41%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -13.4
Score range: 143–202
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Playoff

Combined score 256 vs event baseline 126.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

287.1Season APEX354.3

29.6Auto39.5

94.8Teleop102.2

42.7Endgame39

27Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	25	39
teleop	74	48
endgame	55	15
foul	0	0
total	154	102

Result

Final score

154 – 102

Prediction missed · off by 44.4 pts

Match videos

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