FIM District Ferris State Event presented by Ferris State University

Playoff · Playoff Match 11 R4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

343.6 – 127.97

94%6%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

317 – 177

Prediction correct · off by 37.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 528.5 ±10.5

7160Ludington O-Bots

Season APEX 247.2Event APEX 98.25Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5213St. Ignace SHIELD

Season APEX 34.8Event APEX -4.06Rank 37Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1918Newaygo County GEARS

Season APEX 246.5Event APEX 249.41Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 223.7 ±11.1

244RoboDawgs 3D

Season APEX 108.2Event APEX 74.03Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6100MS Mobots

Season APEX 68.9Event APEX 43.33Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8286E.A.G.L.E.S. Robotics

Season APEX 46.6Event APEX 10.61Rank 40Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7160, 5213, 1918

/ 100 compat

Projected

343.6 pts

~2.4 RP (district)

Teams: 7160, 5213, 1918

Auto

69.2 20%

Teleop

204.3 60%

Endgame

69.5 20%

Strengths

· 1918 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 244, 6100, 8286

/ 100 compat

Projected

128 pts

~0.5 RP (district)

Teams: 244, 6100, 8286

Auto

22.9 17%

Teleop

77.3 58%

Endgame

32.1 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.39 · Blue 0.46

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score343.6pts

Blue projected score128pts

Red win probability94%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 29%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 215.6
Score range: 106–366
Upset likelihood: 6%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 494 vs event baseline 124.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

528.5Season APEX223.7

69.2Auto22.9

204.3Teleop77.3

69.5Endgame32.1

31Consistency32

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	56	13
teleop	161	105
endgame	100	59
foul	0	0
total	317	177

Result

Final score

317 – 177

Prediction correct · off by 37.8 pts

Match videos

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