FIM District Ferris State Event presented by Ferris State University

Qualification · Qualification 9

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

72.2 – 151.6

27%73%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

81 – 92

Prediction correct · off by 34.2 points

Limited current-season data (8 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 179.4 ±12.7

7810Eagle Robotics

Season APEX 47Event APEX 14.86Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5213St. Ignace SHIELD

Season APEX 34.8Event APEX 20.61Rank 37Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4004M.A.R.S. Rovers

Season APEX 97.6Event APEX 36.73Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 187.4 ±12.8

5982Merrill's Circuits of Destruction

Season APEX 95.9Event APEX 16.29Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6005Cardinaltronics

Season APEX 69Event APEX 107.88Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5182Chieftainators

Season APEX 22.5Event APEX 27.43Rank 31Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7810, 5213, 4004

/ 100 compat

Projected

72.2 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 7810, 5213, 4004

Auto

10.9 16%

Teleop

27.0 40%

Endgame

29.5 44%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5982, 6005, 5182

/ 100 compat

Projected

151.6 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 5982, 6005, 5182

Auto

40.0 26%

Teleop

90.0 59%

Endgame

21.6 14%

Strengths

· 6005 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.91 · Blue 1.87

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score72.2pts

Blue projected score151.6pts

Red win probability27%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 32%, blue 36%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -79.4
Score range: 53–171
Upset likelihood: 27%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 173 vs event baseline 105.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

179.4Season APEX187.4

10.9Auto40

27Teleop90

29.5Endgame21.6

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	23	13
teleop	48	64
endgame	10	15
foul	0	0
total	81	92

Result

Final score

81 – 92

Prediction correct · off by 34.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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