FIM District Ferris State Event presented by Ferris State University

Qualification · Qualification 82

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

168.17 – 315.65

14%86%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

199 – 289

Prediction correct · off by 28.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 375.8 ±11.7

7160Ludington O-Bots

Season APEX 247.2Event APEX 111.18Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9673Volt Vespids

Season APEX 72.2Event APEX 45.52Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9736Tawas Braves

Season APEX 56.4Event APEX 11.47Rank 33Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 351.7 ±12.8

5247Red Devil Robotics

Season APEX 46.4Event APEX 15.33Rank 27Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7109Clare Chaos Theory

Season APEX 58.8Event APEX 34.71Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1918Newaygo County GEARS

Season APEX 246.5Event APEX 265.61Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7160, 9673, 9736

/ 100 compat

Projected

168.2 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 7160, 9673, 9736

Auto

36.3 22%

Teleop

97.5 58%

Endgame

34.6 21%

Strengths

· 7160 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5247, 7109, 1918

/ 100 compat

Projected

315.7 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 5247, 7109, 1918

Auto

86.2 28%

Teleop

183.8 59%

Endgame

43.1 14%

Strengths

· 1918 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.76 · Blue 2.21

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score168.2pts

Blue projected score315.7pts

Red win probability14%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 42%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -147.5
Score range: 147–337
Upset likelihood: 14%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 488 vs event baseline 118.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

375.8Season APEX351.7

36.3Auto86.2

97.5Teleop183.8

34.6Endgame43.1

94Consistency34

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	41	111
teleop	93	104
endgame	65	74
foul	0	0
total	199	289

Result

Final score

199 – 289

Prediction correct · off by 28.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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