FIM District Ferris State Event presented by Ferris State University

Qualification · Qualification 81

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

34.4 – 105.12

29%71%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

34 – 100

Prediction correct · off by 2.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 102.6 ±13.9

7203Cyber Bearcats

Season APEX 15.8Event APEX 1.94Rank 36Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7810Eagle Robotics

Season APEX 47Event APEX 18.26Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5183Devil Bots

Season APEX 39.8Event APEX 14.2Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 210 ±12.2

6642Stingers of Steel

Season APEX 45Event APEX 21.05Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5525Alcona Tool Cats

Season APEX 50.2Event APEX 14.93Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1718The Fighting Pi

Season APEX 114.8Event APEX 69.14Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7203, 7810, 5183

/ 100 compat

Projected

34.4 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 7203, 7810, 5183

Auto

4.8 12%

Teleop

17.2 44%

Endgame

16.9 43%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6642, 5525, 1718

/ 100 compat

Projected

105.1 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 6642, 5525, 1718

Auto

21.1 20%

Teleop

58.7 55%

Endgame

26.7 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.98 · Blue 1.91

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score34.4pts

Blue projected score105.1pts

Red win probability29%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 35%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -70.7
Score range: 13–126
Upset likelihood: 29%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 134 vs event baseline 119.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

102.6Season APEX210

4.8Auto21.1

17.2Teleop58.7

16.9Endgame26.7

0Consistency24

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	24
teleop	3	50
endgame	15	26
foul	0	0
total	34	100

Result

Final score

34 – 100

Prediction correct · off by 2.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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