FIM District Ferris State Event presented by Ferris State University

Qualification · Qualification 80

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

41.35 – 24.98

55%45%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

30 – 44

Prediction missed · off by 15.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 130.4 ±13.9

5704Weird & Wired

Season APEX 30.9Event APEX 3.01Rank 28Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7794Eagle Engineers

Season APEX 61.9Event APEX 33.4Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9731All Saints Range Precision

Season APEX 37.6Event APEX 4.94Rank 38Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 104.1 ±13.3

5182Chieftainators

Season APEX 22.5Event APEX 7.41Rank 31Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5162The Big Red Theory

Season APEX 46.8Event APEX 6.03Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5213St. Ignace SHIELD

Season APEX 34.8Event APEX 11.54Rank 37Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5704, 7794, 9731

/ 100 compat

Projected

41.3 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 5704, 7794, 9731

Auto

16.8 53%

Teleop

13.1 42%

Endgame

1.6 5%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5182, 5162, 5213

/ 100 compat

Projected

25 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 5182, 5162, 5213

Auto

13.6 45%

Teleop

9.4 31%

Endgame

7.1 24%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.46 · Blue 1.22

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score41.3pts

Blue projected score25pts

Red win probability55%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 31%, blue 29%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 16.4
Score range: 3–63
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 74 vs event baseline 120.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

130.4Season APEX104.1

16.8Auto13.6

13.1Teleop9.4

1.6Endgame7.1

32Consistency82

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	9	10
teleop	11	19
endgame	10	10
foul	0	5
total	30	44

Result

Final score

30 – 44

Prediction missed · off by 15.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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