FIM District Ferris State Event presented by Ferris State University

Qualification · Qualification 8

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

171.91 – 81.14

76%24%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

105 – 20

Prediction correct · off by 64 points

Limited current-season data (7 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 172.2 ±13.3

6642Stingers of Steel

Season APEX 45Event APEX 29.43Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8611Cyber Patriots

Season APEX 65.3Event APEX 100.57Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7794Eagle Engineers

Season APEX 61.9Event APEX 41.91Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 120.1 ±13.9

7109Clare Chaos Theory

Season APEX 58.8Event APEX 39.71Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11435St. Peter's High School RaiderBots

Season APEX 31.3Event APEX 27.43Rank 35Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9721Red Hawk Robotics

Season APEX 30Event APEX 14Rank 41Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6642, 8611, 7794

/ 100 compat

Projected

171.9 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 6642, 8611, 7794

Auto

40.4 24%

Teleop

96.3 56%

Endgame

35.2 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7109, 11435, 9721

/ 100 compat

Projected

81.1 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 7109, 11435, 9721

Auto

16.3 21%

Teleop

42.6 55%

Endgame

18.0 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.01 · Blue 0.83

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score171.9pts

Blue projected score81.1pts

Red win probability76%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 31%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 90.8
Score range: 61–192
Upset likelihood: 24%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 125 vs event baseline 111.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

172.2Season APEX120.1

40.4Auto16.3

96.3Teleop42.6

35.2Endgame18

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	10
teleop	60	9
endgame	28	1
foul	0	0
total	105	20

Result

Final score

105 – 20

Prediction correct · off by 64 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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