FIM District Ferris State Event presented by Ferris State University

Qualification · Qualification 79

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

102.32 – 220.29

19%81%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

185 – 294

Prediction correct · off by 78.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 267.5 ±11.7

8611Cyber Patriots

Season APEX 65.3Event APEX 36.82Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6963Blood Sweat and Gears

Season APEX 55.4Event APEX 17.42Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9771FPRO

Season APEX 146.8Event APEX 48.08Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 335 ±9.8

244RoboDawgs 3D

Season APEX 108.2Event APEX 63.37Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5982Merrill's Circuits of Destruction

Season APEX 95.9Event APEX 65.06Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5535Bionic Bison

Season APEX 130.9Event APEX 91.86Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8611, 6963, 9771

/ 100 compat

Projected

102.3 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 8611, 6963, 9771

Auto

16.5 16%

Teleop

59.7 59%

Endgame

25.7 25%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 244, 5982, 5535

/ 100 compat

Projected

220.3 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 244, 5982, 5535

Auto

24.9 12%

Teleop

122.5 61%

Endgame

53.3 27%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.91 · Blue 2.18

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score102.3pts

Blue projected score220.3pts

Red win probability19%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -118
Score range: 81–241
Upset likelihood: 19%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 479 vs event baseline 118.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

267.5Season APEX335

16.5Auto24.9

59.7Teleop122.5

25.7Endgame53.3

35Consistency22

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	31	45
teleop	100	192
endgame	54	57
foul	0	0
total	185	294

Result

Final score

185 – 294

Prediction correct · off by 78.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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